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Quick analysis of the situation
Buckle up, crypto fans! We're entering a macro week that could make or break the crypto markets, and it’s a bumpy ride we’re in for. This week could shape everything for the Fed and the wider markets, and if you’re not paying attention, you might just miss the crypto boat. As the @_Investinq account wisely points out, there’s a whirlwind of U.S. macro catalysts set to make waves between Tuesday and Friday.
While this spicy week isn't all about crypto directly, the domino effect is undeniably real. Labor-market revisions, reports on wholesale and consumer inflation, jobless claims, energy inventories, and even consumer expectations will have a say in the fate of the dollar and Treasury yields. And guess what? Those two stubborn factors are the ones pulling the strings on our beloved digital assets. Historically, when the dollar and real yields head south, Bitcoin tends to strut its stuff right along with them.
Kicking Off with a Bang: Tuesday’s Job Jive
Our tale begins on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics drops a bombshell: the preliminary benchmark revision to March 2025 payrolls. Yes, you read that right. This isn't just any old report—it's like the IRS of job data, anchoring everything to unemployment-insurance tax records for over 95% of payroll jobs.
After weeks of build-up, Goldman Sachs is throwing some spicy estimates into the ring, ranging from a 550,000 to 950,000-job reduction. If that number comes in hot, we might see the biggest markdown since 2010, which makes last year’s preliminary benchmark of 818,000 seem like a walk in the park (or maybe a jog through the crypto park).
For those of you betting your crypto fortunes on the “growth-is-slowing” narrative, a sizable downward revision would be validation galore. This backdrop could even sync up nicely with rate-cut bets heading into the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting—a scenario that typically leads to a weaker dollar and buoyant asset liquidity. Cue the applause for Bitcoin!
Inflation Nation: Keep Your Eyes on Wednesday
Don't take out your popcorn just yet! Wednesday morning is packed tighter than a crypto wallet after a bull run. First up: the wholesale inflation check with the Producer Price Index (PPI). Last month, things heated up with a +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y increase. If August PPI shows more upward pressure, we could see the dollar stiffen, pushing yields up and putting the squeeze on rate-sensitive assets like high-beta crypto.
But, on the flip side, if the energy sector tosses in some good news from the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report later that morning, it might cool those inflationary fireworks down a notch. Higher energy costs directly impact inflation and the core price dynamics that crypto loves to dance around.
The Main Event: Thursday’s CPI Showdown
Hold on to your wallets, folks! Thursday is where the real drama lies with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the last inflation read before the Fed’s big meeting. The stakes couldn’t be higher. A delightful soft print would strengthen policy moves from the Fed, while anything spicy could have the opposite effect. And don’t forget about jobless claims dropping at the same time because, as we all know, low claims equal strong labor and a hawkish Fed.
Markets are looking at these figures like a hawk waiting to pounce, so brace yourselves—this could send Bitcoin skyrocketing or crashing back to earth.
Ending the Week with a Bang: Friday’s Sentiment Scoop
Finally, we roll into the end of this macro week with the University of Michigan's sentiment survey. The outcome from this report could be the cherry on top of the economic sundae. Low sentiment paired with rising inflation expectations? Talk about a toxic combo that bears watching!
The Fed’s Mysterious Blackout
All of this unfolds in a blacked-out window for the Fed ahead of their big decision on September 16-17. With the recent soft jobs report, speculation about rate cuts is all the rage, and the fate of trillions hangs in the balance. Will the Fed go for a 25-basis points cut or surprise us with a more aggressive move?
For crypto, it’s a binary scenario: If labor revisions and CPI print cool, we might see a rally in digital assets. If inflation keeps rising like a cake in the oven, Bitcoin and its cryptocurrency companions could face some disheartening headwinds.
As we navigate this volatile landscape, remember that every decimal in the PPI and CPI readings counts. And as @_Investinq accurately framed it: “This week isn’t just data; it’s the Fed’s last look before September... and markets will trade every decimal.” So grab your virtual surfboards and hang ten as we ride this wild wave of macro data through the crypto seas!
At the time of writing, the total crypto market cap stands at a staggering $3.82 trillion. Here’s to hoping it’s up and away by the end of the week!
Disclaimer: Our articles are NOT financial advice, and we are not financial advisors. Your investments are your own responsibility. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed financial advisor beforehand if needed.
Image(s) are provided by Unsplash and/or other free sources. They are illustrative and may not represent the content truly.
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