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Quick analysis of the situation
Greetings, fellow crypto enthusiasts! As summer continues to sizzle, the crypto market finds itself in the midst of an exciting week filled with numbers, charts, and, yes, even some good old-fashioned economic panic. Why? Because the data circulating this week could very well decide if Bitcoin decides to break out like a kid in a candy store or fizzle like a soda left open overnight.
Get Ready for the CPI Showdown!
Tuesday, August 12, is a day marked in red on every crypto trader's calendar as the July Consumer Price Index drops at 14:30 CEST (that’s 08:30 ET for those stateside). Our friendly neighborhood economists are placing their bets on a core CPI that’s, shall we say, “firm”—a neat little 0.3% month-over-month increase, while the headline CPI might hang out at a modest 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y after a thrilling 2.7% in June.
The Cleveland Fed isn’t painting a different picture either, parading forecasts close to those numbers. Essentially, we’re looking at figures that suggest inflation might be like an uncomfortable pair of shoes—it’s not quite getting worse, but neither is it getting any better.
Hoping for a Hot PPI!
On Thursday, August 14, the Producer Price Index will waltz in, with whispers predicting a tidy 0.2% increase in PPI final demand following a rather uneventful June. But the real excitement might not come from the numbers; instead, it’s all about the methodology changes that are reportedly rolling into town. Will it be chaos or a smooth ride? Only time will tell, but modest growth here could signal the inflation pipeline isn’t about to burst.
Retail Sales: Can They Infuse Some Enthusiasm?
Moving on to Friday, August 15, the retail sector will strut onto the scene at 14:30 CEST (you’ve got it, that’s 08:30 ET again) with expectations of a bright 0.5% increase in headline retail sales. Economists are watching like hawks, eager to gauge consumer spending. A spike here, coupled with a hotter than expected CPI, might just send everyone into a tizzy about “higher-for-longer” interest rates. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s preliminary August sentiment survey will be dropping an hour later—an after-party we can’t afford to miss.
Gasoline Prices: Don’t Forget the Wild Cards!
But hang onto your hats, folks—energy prices are rolling like a wild card in poker. On the same day the CPI hits the wires, OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report is up for a reading, followed by the IEA’s Oil Market Report. With the gasoline prices being a direct line into inflation expectations, anything wild from OPEC could turn the inflation conversation upside down.
Crypto Players Are Loading Up!
In crypto-native news, FTX's estate is marking August 15 to determine who's getting a piece of the cash-distribution pie. With $1.9 billion on the line, millions will be holding their breaths until the actual distributions go out around quarter-end. Imagine the surprise on faces if one day they just wake up and find a nice surprise in their wallets!
Ethereum's Corporate Conundrum
Over in Ethereum’s territory, this week holds an intriguing development as SharpLink Gaming boasts about its significant ETH holdings. As of August 3, the company pointed at around 521,939 ETH sitting snugly on the balance sheets. Their quarterly call on August 15 may just nudge Ethereum’s role as a significant balance-sheet asset—change up that strategy, and who knows what could happen?
The Road Ahead for Bitcoin
And then there’s Bitcoin, perched just a stone’s throw away from its July record of $123,153. Currently clocking in at $121,699, we’re all waiting with bated breath as Aksel Kibar, CMT, calls last week's pause “a textbook pullback.” The word on the street is that breaching that minor high could turn the tide and send Bitcoin’s price shooting for the stars.
So, buckle up for what’s promising to be a thrilling week! If all these data points line up in our favor, we could see more than just fireworks; we might witness the beginning of a whole new chapter for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Until next time, may your wallets be ever in your favor!
Disclaimer: Our articles are NOT financial advice, and we are not financial advisors. Your investments are your own responsibility. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed financial advisor beforehand if needed.
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Please, behave!