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Quick analysis of the situation
With Bitcoin teetering just above the sparkling $100,000 mark and altcoins bleeding like they just got picked in a dodgeball game, traders are dropping the million-dollar query: Is the crypto bull run over? Enter systematic trader Adam Bakay (@abetrade) with a market breakdown that could make even the most seasoned crypto enthusiast scratch their heads in confusion.
Now, don’t throw in the towel just yet! Bakay’s analysis, posted on June 22, certainly leans toward cautious optimism. "Looking at the monthly and weekly timeframes, we are still technically in an uptrend," he reported, as confidently as someone still trying to convince themselves that their favorite sitcom is coming back for another season. He highlighted that "no key swing low was broken"—apparently that key is well-hidden, like my willpower in an all-you-can-eat buffet.
Despite this upbeat façade, Bakay isn’t blind to the reality that can bring down even the most enthusiastic bull. Namely, the distinct lack of new all-time highs—reminding us painfully of the raucous highs of 2021—has him feeling slightly uneasy. And when institutional whales like BlackRock start hoarding about 3.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply, you know somethings are brewing under the surface. Bakay himself admits it’s quite a “divergence” from strong institutional interest to a market doing the limbo under the $100,000 cheer squad.
So what’s a trader to do in such tumultuous waters? Bakay’s navigation plan looks at two potential outcomes on the horizon: either Bitcoin climbs back into the comfortable embrace of the $100,000 support area—"likely if the conflict in the Middle East does not further escalate"—or it slips down to the $97,000–$95,000 range, where it has technically relatable friends like the 200-day moving average hanging out.
But hold your horses on shorting, folks. Bakay has declared he’s not hurling himself into that territory just yet. His positioning is a game of defense rather than offense, with dropping open interest and tentative signs of spot bid interest since April providing a faint glimmer of hope. The options market, however, is waving its caution flags—those risk reversal skews are looking a bit negative, but not at panic levels… yet.
Now, let’s switch gears to Ethereum. Bakay’s assessment is blunt: “ETH almost had its moment, but of course had to become a disappointment,” he lamented, as if he’s explaining a friend’s failed attempts at a grand romantic gesture. With the "DeFi Summer 2025" narrative sweeping the scene faster than a celebrity scandal, Bakay argues punishing FOMO was destined to happen.
The technical situation for ETH doesn’t scream confidence, likening it to sitting on a roller coaster before the first big drop. If you're looking for support, he predicts that it hovers at a cozy $1,800. Just like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s fortunes could hinge on geopolitics—because why wouldn’t they?
Let’s not gloss over our weary altcoins. Bakay paints a rather grim picture. "Altcoins have not been having fun for quite a while," he observes, giving us all the warm fuzzies. Every time it looks like they might pull off a comeback, fate grins wickedly and drags them back down. Instead of the anticipated rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins, it seems traders are highlighting a preference for crypto-related equities—those new market darlings tied closely to the ever-mystifying ETF saga.
Even powerhouses like Solana are taking a hit; Bakay warns it’s retraced nearly the entire rally from April. The key figure to watch here is $100, and trust me, if things go south, that round number may become the new lifeboat.
Bakay even throws a bone to newer altcoins—Hype and Fartcoin—because who says crypto conversing can’t also include a few chuckles? One has product reliability, while the other thrives on wild volatility. “Fartcoin,” he quips, “would become attractive if it could reclaim the $1 or $0.50 area.” Hilariously insightful, right?
To sum it all up, Bakay paints a picture where the crypto scene resembles a suspense thriller—filled with geopolitical uncertainties and a market that can flip at the drop of a hat, or rather, the announcement of a new regulation. The market may seem overly short at the moment, but Bakay advises against playing hero when catching the proverbial falling knife—true wisdom from someone who’s been trading longer than most of us have had a smartphone.
So, whether you’re holding, folding, or just nervously reorganizing your digital wallet, take a tip from Bakay: this isn’t a time for bravado. Instead, let’s chant the mantra of the cautious trader: restraint, tight risk management, and a healthy respect for the wild ride that is crypto volatility. After all, what’s a bull run without a few bumps along the way? Keep your eyes peeled, folks. Bitcoin's at $101,847—who knows where it’ll lead us next!
Disclaimer: Our articles are NOT financial advice, and we are not financial advisors. Your investments are your own responsibility. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed financial advisor beforehand if needed.
Image(s) are provided by Unsplash and/or other free sources. They are illustrative and may not represent the content truly.
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Please, behave!